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Ten Predictions from History That Were Hilariously Wrong

by Selme Angulo
fact checked by Darci Heikkinen

To be fair to people who make predictions that turn out to be very wrong, you can go back to pretty much any era of history and find prognosticators who messed up badly. But that doesn’t mean some of those missed predictions aren’t interesting to look back on—and fun to make fun of! So, we will do a bit of that in this list.

The following ten stories are about people who made wrong predictions. And not just slightly wrong or predictions about difficult-to-parse events that ended up missing the mark. No, we’re talking about people making hilariously incorrect predictions about what should have been some of the most obvious things ever.

Yeah, sure, hindsight is 20/20. If we looked back into our own pasts, we’d all find a few things we really messed up on mis-predicting here and there. But these ten mistakes are in a league of their own. As you read through this list, these ten tales will make you wonder: how could these people have missed the mark this badly?

Related: Top 10 TV Shows That Predicted the Future and Got It Right

10 Steel, Steel All Around!

Thomas Edison Predicts the 20th Century // Kindles and Bumblebee Helicopters // Cosmopolitan (1911)

We love a good tale about Thomas Edison. The man who invented the light bulb was legitimately one of the smartest Americans to ever live. But even the world’s super-geniuses get things wrong sometimes! Take Edison’s 1911 interview with the Miami Metropolis as proof of that. During their chat, the outlet asked Edison to make a few predictions about the future. His response? Steel. Steel all around!

He said: “The house of the next century will be furnished from basement to attic with steel, at a sixth of the present cost—of steel so light that it will be as easy to move a sideboard as it is today to lift a drawing room chair. The baby of the twenty-first century will be rocked in a steel cradle; his father will sit in a steel chair at a steel dining table, and his mother’s boudoir will be sumptuously equipped with steel furnishings, converted by cunning varnishes to the semblance of rosewood, or mahogany, or any other wood her ladyship fancies.”

Of course, that was dead wrong. Babies aren’t rocked in a steel cradle, families don’t sit at steel dining tables, and people don’t live in homes with steel furnishings. We hope.

He also gave another prediction to that outlet, too—about books being printed on “leaves of nickel” so light and easy to hold that “the reader can enjoy a small library in a single volume.” Edison predicted: “A book two inches thick will contain forty thousand pages, the equivalent of a hundred volumes; six inches in aggregate thickness, it would suffice for all the contents of the Encyclopedia Britannica. And each volume would weigh less than a pound.” He wasn’t right about the “leaves of nickel” part, but he did sort of get it right there in predicting the Amazon Kindle and other e-readers. Just saying![1]

9 Amazonian Women

The Amazons: The Myth of the Invincible Warrior Women of Greek Mythology

In 1950, a writer reporting on news for the Associated Press predicted that all women by the year 2000 would be 6 feet (1.8 meters) tall. All of them. Every single one. The journalist’s name was Dorothy Roe, and she claimed to have relied on what she termed “scientific evidence” to make her prediction. According to her, nutrition and health care were simultaneously improving so much that women in future generations simply wouldn’t stop growing like they had before.

“Her proportions will be perfect, though Amazonian,” Roe wrote of the hypothetical woman living in the year 2000—five decades into the future from when she made her prediction. “Science will have perfected a balanced ratio of vitamins, proteins, and minerals that will produce the maximum bodily efficiency, the minimum of fat.”

Now, to be fair, women really are slightly taller on average nowadays than they were seven decades ago in the 1950s. Medical experts attribute those gains to things like better nutrition of mothers during pregnancy, better and more reliable medicine overall, and a more robust health care understanding for infants and children. But we’re only talking about very slight height improvements across the board here. Not every woman is six feet tall—not even close![2]


8 The Death of Music

The Phonograph – An Invention That Changed Music

In 1906, renowned classical music composer John Philip Sousa made a jaw-dropping prediction: that recorded music would ruin everyone’s musical ability. In a publication called The Menace of Mechanical Music, the renowned composer argued that machines that brought recorded music into people’s homes were the thing of the devil. Because of the phonograph (later called a gramophone), which was invented about a decade before Sousa made his comments, the composer-slash-conductor argued that fewer and fewer actual instruments were being purchased. Thus, fewer people were learning how to play instruments because “the automatic music devices are usurping their places.”

His argument went on to reveal more of his thoughts on the supposed imminent destruction of music because of early record players: “[One day], music can be heard in the homes without the labor of study and close application, and without the slow process of acquiring a technique. It will be simply a question of time when the amateur disappears entirely and with him a host of vocal and instrumental teachers, who will be without field or calling.”

Crazy, right? Actually… now that we think about what passes for “music” on the radio nowadays, maybe Sousa was onto something there.[3]

7 Hose It All Down

The 1960s Idea of “The Home of 1999” | Flashback | History

Let’s go back to 1950 for yet another wacky prediction: One day, you’ll need to clean your house with only a hose and absolutely nothing more. This crazy futuristic theory came from Waldemar Kaempffert, the science editor for the New York Times after World War II. In 1950, while opining on all the amazing things that were supposedly going to happen by the year 2000, Kaempffert got a little bit carried away with his truly bizarre all-in-one cleaning-with-a-hose theory.

To prove his prediction, the science editor created a character out of thin air—a housewife named Jane Dobson. He then explained how Jane would clean her house when 2000 rolled around. “When Jane Dobson cleans house, she simply turns the hose on everything. Why not? Furniture (upholstery included), rugs, draperies, unscratchable floors—all are made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor (later concealed by a rug of synthetic fiber), Jane turns on a blast of hot air and dries everything.”

Considering everything we know now about some of the dangers of various plastics, we’re glad this prediction didn’t come true. Nanoplastics, PFAS, and concerns over all kinds of “forever plastics” and other synthetics getting into our bloodstreams, oceans, and the world around us have people rightly worried. So Kaempffert missed this prediction pretty badly. Better hose him down for it![4]


6 Who Needs Power?

The Shocking History of Electricity: How it Changed the World

Mega-wealthy and uber-famous financier J.P. Morgan got none other than Thomas Edison to wire up his mansion not long after Edison first perfected the use of the light bulb. In turn, because lighting power to a home was so expensive and unique back then, ol’ money-bucks Morgan paid a fortune for the privilege. But he was a pioneer in doing it! After Edison successfully wired Morgan’s home, J.P. became the first New Yorker to have electric lighting. And suddenly, he could do everything he wanted at night without relying on candles and flames. Not bad, right?

Actually, J.P.’s own father, Junius Morgan, thought it was plenty bad. After J.P. had Edison finish the electricity job, Junius criticized his son for investing so heavily in such a new-fangled technology. The investment was short-sighted and stupid, Junius argued, because electricity was a fad that would soon be on its way out. Thankfully for us, that was totally wrong. Thankfully for J.P., he didn’t listen to his father—because he went on to be one of Edison’s earliest and biggest investors, eventually going so far as to finance General Electric. Not a bad “ground floor” to get in on, ya know?[5]

5 Who Wants to Live Forever?

Can We Live up to be 200 Years Old? The Science of Longevity With David Sinclair

To be fair, this next prediction doesn’t technically come due until 2030—so the person who made it still has half a decade to pray (from beyond the grave) that it’ll somehow magically come true. But with that said, we can pretty definitively assure you that it won’t come true. No matter how bad some of you might want it to be a reality…

In 1922, a longtime friend of British politician Winston Churchill wrote a treatise about all the medical advances he foresaw looming on the horizon. That Churchill pal’s name was F.E. Smith, and he was no slouch himself. In his day, he was one of the most powerful lawyers in the United Kingdom. But in that early ’20s write-up, Smith made some predictions a little off the rails. Most notably, he foresaw medical injections that could help sustain and maintain people’s lives for up to 150 years.

Obviously, human life expectancy has increased over time. Medical advances have really come a long way compared to what was normal and expected in Smith’s day. But 150 years?! That’s twice as long as what we can expect (on average) to live. Smith saw at least one downside with his supposedly very long life of the future: ultra-intense competition for jobs and resources. He pondered, “How will youths of 20 be able to compete in the professions or business against vigorous men still in their prime at 120, with a century of experience on which to draw?” Hmmm. How indeed?[6]


4 Don’t Call

The history of the telephone

In 1876, while Alexander Graham Bell was working hard on inventing and then perfecting the telephone, the President of Western Union didn’t think much of the new technology. That man’s name was William Orton, and he was very proud and confident to dismiss the phone as a fad and a trend. He was certain that it wouldn’t catch on. He was so certain, in fact, that he scoffed when Bell offered to sell him the patent for a whopping $100,000. Then, Orton went even further—and called the telephone a “toy” that would assuredly be forgotten in short order!

Orton wrote an internal memo about the telephone to his Western Union telegram colleagues. He said: “The idea is idiotic on the face of it. Furthermore, why would anyone want to use this ungainly and impractical device when he can send a messenger to the telegraph office and have a clear written message sent to any large city in the United States?” Talk about embarrassing…

But that’s not the only embarrassing phone prediction moment in history! In 2007, while Apple was gearing up to completely change the world with the smartphone, its biggest competitors were very skeptical about whether the iPhone would change anything.

Microsoft’s CEO at the time was a man named Steve Ballmer. And even though Ballmer was smart in a lot of ways, he was very dumb in a lot of others. Case in point? Here’s what he said about the iPhone way back then: “There’s no chance that the iPhone will get any significant market share. No chance.” No chance, huh? How’s that working out for you, Steve?[7]

3 Television Troubles

The Invention That Changed The World

Telephones weren’t the only thing that supposedly smart prognosticators said wouldn’t be popular. Some futurists insisted that the television wouldn’t catch on and take over the world, either. The most notable of those people was legendary film producer Darryl Zanuck. During his lifetime, Darryl was the kingpin behind 20th Century Fox. He produced countless films that completely changed how Hollywood operated—and forever impacted how the rest of the world thought about Hollywood. But he missed very badly on television when it started getting really popular not long after World War II.

In 1946, Zanuck was mad that (slightly) fewer people had gone to see some of his recent hit movies over the last few years, including iconic films like How Green Was My Valley and The Grapes Of Wrath. So, that year, he used the opportunity to lash out at television for it. Rather than recognizing how TV might be a competitor to his film biz, Zanuck instead insisted, “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon tire of staring at a plywood box every night.” Yeah… that definitely didn’t happen, did it?![8]


2 Cars? What Cars?

The Car That Changed Everything

It may seem obvious today that the horse and buggy was destined to go the way of the horse and buggy once cars were invented, their manufacture was perfected, and their use was popularized. However, even people close to Henry Ford didn’t believe cars would withstand the test of time when they first popped up on the market at the very start of the 20th century. And at least one notable person living in Michigan back then made a jaw-droppingly incorrect prediction about cars being a fad. Yes, cars! A fad. In America!

In 1903, Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, was talking to a friend who just happened to be the president of the Michigan Savings Bank. Now, Rackham had seen what Ford was up to, and he was a true believer in the future of the automobile. But the banker sure wasn’t. When Rackman asked the banker if he ought to invest even more money into Ford’s automobile venture, the banker used the supposedly waning popularity of the bicycle as proof that cars would come up as a fad and be quickly forgotten in time.

“You see all those people on their bicycles riding along the boulevard? There are not as many as there were a year ago,” the banker told Rackham. “The novelty is wearing off; they are losing interest. That’s just the way it will be with automobiles. People will get the fever, and later, they will throw them away. My advice is not to buy the stock. You might make money for a year or two, but in the end you would lose everything you put in. The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” Welp! That sure was wrong![9]

1 More Car Bombs

What it was like to drive a car in the 1890s

That poor banker isn’t the only person who totally missed the boat (er, car) on cars. A year after he told Rackham not to invest in Ford’s fledgling car company, a debate was held in Paris between a physician and a neuroscientist about the requirements that driving cars put on the human brain. At the time, as reported by the New York Times and other publications, experts thought that cars would start moving too quickly for the human brain to keep up. Somehow, these “experts” predicted that our brains wouldn’t be able to process information that quickly and still be safe while driving.

“It remains to be proved how fast the brain is capable of traveling,” the New York Times article on the debate breathlessly stated at the time. “If it cannot acquire an eight-mile-per-hour speed, then an auto running at the rate of 80 miles per hour is running without the guidance of the brain, and the many disastrous results are not to be marveled at.” It’s endlessly funny to us now to think that a car traveling at 80 mph is going too fast for the human brain to keep up. Then again, have you SEEN some of these highway drivers lately? Maybe those experts were right about people driving without their brains involved…[10]

fact checked by Darci Heikkinen

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